It is a fact that most people cannot estimate. Many times in my engineering classes I had people get outrageous answers for a test question that they simply boxed as the correct answer and went onto the next question. I received extra points several times by indicating to the teacher that this is the answer I got but I it cannot be correct. For example, 5000 degrees Fahrenheit just doesn't seem correct when you are determining the temp of a conventional oven.

What is my point? My point is that some people enter information, believing it is the truth, when it is absolutely outrageous. Here is an example and the reason for my ranting.

O.K. Let's do a little reality check here.

Log:
15 miles in 30 minutes
Sprints: 1, 45, 30, 15, 15, 30, 45, 1

Constants
1 hour = 60 minutes

Glossary
i = interval
r = recovery
mpm = miles per minute
mph = miles per hour

Basic Equations
mph = total miles / total hours
mpm = total miles / total mintues
mph = mpm * 60
miles = mph * hours = mpm * minutes

Assumptions:
1. The ride was broken into intervals and recovery.
2. Recovery was ridden at an average of 15 mph.
3. One set of intervals were ridden.

Scientific Investigation

Log: 15 miles in 30 minutes
mpm = total miles/total minutes = 15 / 30 = 0.5 mpm
mph = mpm * 60 = 0.5 * 60 = 30 mph

Intervals:
seconds minutes
60 ---- 1.00
45 ---- 0.75
30 ---- 0.50
15 ---- 0.25
15 ---- 0.25
30 ---- 0.50
45 ---- 0.75
60 ---- 1.00

300 --- 5.00 Totals

mpm = total miles / total minutes = (miles r + miles i)/ total minutes

miles = mpm * minutes

mpm = ((mpm r * minutes r) + (mpm i * minutes i)) / total minutes

mpm i = ((mpm * total minutes) – (mpm r * minutes r)) / minutes i

mpm i = ((.5 * 30) – (.25 * 25)) / 5

mpm i = 1.75

mph i = mpm i * 60 = 105 mph average for the intervals

I changes some of the assumptions and got the following values:

1. Changed recovery mph to 18 mph = 90 mph for the intervals
2. Changed intervals to 2 sets = 60 mph for the intervals
3. Combined 1 and 2 = 54 mph for the intervals

I don't know about you guys but I am spinning my 53-11 at about 150 rpm at 54 mph.